IEM 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market Price Graph

It's time to buy Kerry

For Kerry, Against Bush? Who Cares

There is a lot of talk that democrats don't like their candidate because polls show that they are more likely to vote for him because they are voting against Bush. While Kerry voters may or may not like Kerry a lot it is actually irrelevant to this question to some degree. Imagine that Kerry voters and Bush voters each liked their candidates exactly the same amount. Let's say 7 on a ten point scale. But many Kerry voters also *really, really* dislike Bush as well. Let's say 9.8 out of ten. On the other hand if the general Bush voter may dislike Kerry, but don't feel absolutely betrayed by him, their sentiment may only be 6 our of 10 against Kerry.

So easy to have a scenario, where candidates are equally liked by their respective voters, but the one candidate is much more disliked than the other.

Bush peak baseline

I forgot to give numbers last time. here is the current electoral count according to www.electoral-vote.com
Kerry 211 Bush 327

It just doesn't get better than this for Bush, and Lord willing, it gets a lot worse.

Peak?

I am going to go on record and say that as of today, September 16, 2004, things don't improve for President Bush in this campaign. So, according to me, Republicans should enjoy this moment, because I don't think it will last.

Reasons include:
Suddenly strong and crisp messages from Kerry (though who knows how long that will last)
News from Iraq is bad and steadily deteriorating. I really wonder if at this current trajectory if elections will be possible.
Economy does not appear to be poised for an unexpectedly sharp upturn that will significantly impact peoples current conceptions of its performance.
No more one-sided events to boost his and the Republicans message.

Possible reasons that I could be wrong:
Kerry could be worse than Gore in the debates.
Osama Bin Laden could be found.
Terrorist attack on our soil, though this could go either way.
Videotape of Kerry saying, "yeah, I really fooled everyone with that whole purple heart charade."

So that's it. I am obviously so biased that I couldn't even pretend to be objective if I wanted to, and my hopes are obviously intertwined into this prediction, but it is as honest as possible.

Ex-NSA Head William Odom, ex-Centcom Commander Joseph Hoare, Air War College Strategy Professor Jeffrey Record, Army War College Strategy

Did I mention that I have a pit in my stomach?

These are the type of people that deserve to be listened to.

USATODAY.com - U.S. tribunal could lose members

I am tired of the pit in my stomach when I read about whatever this administration does next in the "War on Terror". I don't know how they can do things so badly if it is not on purpose. Did they not consider using LAWYERS very important for a trial of this magnitude?

COMMENT: Bush eloquently lays out his vision while ignoring reality

Fareed Zakaria is always so insightful, key quotes:

Bush mocked press reports detailing the problems in Iraq, comparing them to gloomy accounts of Germany in 1946. If the president really thinks that Iraq today looks like Germany in 1946 -- an advanced industrial country with a long liberal tradition, centuries of experience with capitalism, the rule of law and a defeated population that fully cooperated with American occupation -- then he's in for a rude surprise.
...
Bush is right to note that after World War II, because "generations of Americans held firm in the cause of liberty, we live in a better and safer world." But in those years the United States adopted a series of wise, generous policies and a conciliatory style that made it much loved in the countries we were trying to help. Spreading democracy requires allies, particularly among the targets of one's affection.

The picture could not be more different today. Bush does not seem aware that the intense hostility toward him in every country in the world (save Israel) has made it very difficult for the United States to be the agent of freedom. In every Arab country that I have been to in the last two years, the liberals, reformers and businessmen say, "Please don't support us. American support today is the kiss of death."